NFL Betting Trends
Millions of people across the world bet on the National Football League. It’s by far the most significant competition within its sport and while this is a distinctively American pastime, it has a global following.
Even in the offseason, bettors will look at Superbowl odds which are available all year round. When the new NFL season starts, betting will intensify. To help them with those bets, they will study NFL betting trends, and here are some of the early statistics from the new season.
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Winning Splits
It’s still early days in the 2023 NFL campaign, but those initial games have produced some interesting numbers. Current figures show that away teams have the edge in terms of overall wins.
After the first 64 games of the new regular season, away franchises had won 53.1% of their matches, leaving home teams with a 46.9% win percentage. It’s a fairly even split, but the home-field advantage factor isn’t having much influence in those opening exchanges.
Will this pattern continue? By the end of the 2022/23 season, home teams had won 56.3% of their matches. As the new campaign develops, home-field advantage may be a more important factor, but that’s an exciting trend to open up with.
If we look at spread betting, the win percentages also favor the away team. Over those first 64 games, 55.9% of fixtures have been won against the spread. This may not be so surprising as the away team is often the underdog, and they will generally be the side given a points advantage.
Favorites Dominant?
Favorites tend to win around 66% of all NFL matches. This means that for every three games, on average, the favorite will win two of them. Opening games this season have generally followed that trend, but there may be some value in the spread markets.
Here, the figures show that the underdogs are winning 49.2% of games against the spread, as opposed to 50.2% for the favorites. While the 2023/24 season is still providing a small sample size, those are interesting numbers that suggest it might be worth backing against the favorites in the spread markets.
Player Trends
Bettors will also stake on individual players, particularly the quarterbacks and the field goal kickers. There are markets for points scoring for individuals, and they get a lot of attention from the betting community.
At the start of the 2023/24 season, the best quarterback in the NFL is producing solid stats. Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs retains the top spot in the power rankings, and he’s been returning good stats since the first game.
In contrast, other top stars have been struggling since the start of the campaign. Much was expected of Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos, but he is struggling towards the bottom of the same rankings.
Behind Patrick Mahomes, other quarterbacks who are returning good passing and throwing figures include Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Totals Targets
Totals markets are popular among the betting community, and many will be closely looking at trends relating to these markets. For the early stages of the 2023/24 season, points scoring has been lower than previous years.
In the first four weeks of the new campaign, just 11 games had gone Over the 44.5 mark. The trend is to go low but remember to do more research before getting fully involved.
NFL Betting Trends: Studying Trends
Trends should never be backed blindly: They can offer useful statistics, but potential bettors should always follow up with their research. In any game, the form guide is the first point to consider. Which of the two teams has the best recent record in the contest?
Head-to-head results over previous years should also be considered. Keep an eye out for media updates that may contain news of injuries to key players. This research can help bettors make an informed decision in match results or any of the many available NFL side markets.
Trends will not guarantee success moving forward, but they are a good indicator of what we might expect from the rest of this NFL season. In terms of the teams, there are few surprises at this stage. Away teams are winning more games, and that’s an interesting stat, but it may even itself out across the rest of the campaign.
The stats about underdogs against the spread may be the most outstanding figure. NFL bettors will continue to monitor the figures at the end of every game weekend, and it will be fascinating to see how the trends develop for the remainder of the campaign.
